The Bank is aware of the challenges ahead and has chosen to push harder than expected on the brake pedal, promising to continue to raise rates as needed to quell inflation. “On 13 July 2022, the Bank of Canada raised its key policy rate by a full percentage point. He forecast a 0.5% hike in September after the 1% hike in July, as the Canadian economy weakens. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said he expects the BoC to hike rates less aggressively in the September meeting. Whether the BoC continues hiking rates aggressively depends on what macroeconomic data shows. The BoC still has three more monetary policy meetings in 2022, with the next one set for 7 September. Looking ahead, the future path for interest rate hikes could play an important role in the direction of the CAD. The move has taken the benchmark lending rate to 2.25% and highlights policymakers’ concern about stubbornly high inflation. The bank caught the market off guard with the supersized hike after a 0.75% rate rise had been priced in. The most recent hike was in July when it increased the key lending rate by 1%, its largest rate hike in over 20 years, as it continued to fight against four-decade high inflation. The BoC has raised rates four times so far this year. The BoC kicked off the most recent rate hiking cycle on 3 March 2022 – ahead of the Fed – raising rates by 0.25% to 0.5%. When oil prices rise, the CAD often rises when oil prices fall, the loonie will often decline. In the case of Canada, this is related to the price of oil, the country’s main export. Oil pricesĪs is often the case with countries that rely on commodities for a large portion of their exports, the performance of its currency is often correlated to the movement of commodity prices. Data of interest includes inflation figures, gross domestic product ( GDP), and labour market data, in addition to manufacturing and service sector figures. Central banks pay close attention to economic data to gain insight into how the economy is performing. Whether the central bank is raising or cutting interest rates depends largely on the inflation rate and the economy’s health. In other words, the difference in interest rates and interest rate expectations between one currency and another drives movement in the pair. When a central bank raises interest rates, demand for that currency often rises compared to currencies where interest rates are lower. GBP/CAD was traded 8.7% lower, and AUD/CAD 3% lower in 2022.Ĭentral bank monetary policy is a key influence on a currency’s value, driving supply and demand. Compared to other currencies, EUR/CAD was trading down 8% YTD. Trading across 2022 has been choppy as investors weigh up a more aggressive stance on tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve ( Fed), rollercoaster oil prices and a surprise 100 basis-point (bp) rate hike from the BoC.Īs of 16 August, the USD/CAD was trading at 1.29, gaining just 2% year-to-date ( YTD) and highlighting the choppy nature of trade. The USD/CAD pair rose to 1.4668 a level last seen on 1 January 2016.Īfter hitting 1.4668, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and USD/CAD fell steadily across the rest of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, hitting a low of 1.2013 on 3 Mayįrom there, the pair started to grind higher, rising in choppy trade to a peak of 1.3223 on 1 July 2022, the highest point of that year and a level last seen in November 2020. In March 2020, the Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in over four years as the Covid-19 pandemic led to oil prices tumbling. Price action: Canadian dollar performance However, with oil prices slipping lower and Canadian inflation showing signs of cooling, can the loonie keep pace with the USD across the rest of 2022? Read on for the latest Canadian dollar forecast. The Canadian dollar ( CAD) has put in a solid performance against the US dollar (USD) this year, finding support from soaring oil prices and as the Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked interest rates aggressively. The Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie, is Canada’s national currency.
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